Arctic sea ice loss likely to survive rising melt rate in 2013: Scientists

In a sigh of relief for environmentalists, the rate of ice depletion in the Arctic is expected to be slow this year.

According to Walt Meier, a glaciologist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md, “This is not going to be as extreme a year as last year, but we’re still seeing a strong downward trend. We’re still at levels that are much lower than average”.

“Even if this year ends up being the sixth- or seventh-lowest extent, what matters is that the 10 lowest extents recorded have happened during the last 10 years,” said Meier. “The long-term trend is strongly downward”, he added.

The ice cover of the Arctic Ocean was measured at 2.25 million square miles (5.83 million square kilometers) on August 21, this year. It was 1.67 mn sq miles (4.34 million square kilometers) on the same date in 2012. The largest recorded for this date was in 1996, when ice covered 3.16 millions square miles (8.2 million square kilometers) of the Arctic Ocean.

NASA scientists have been studying the melting rates of Arctic ice since decades. Studying the updates of Arctic ice and its melting pattern, Arctic loses 30,000 square miles of sea ice each year. Last year’s melting rate was very high and the NASA scientists had reported a record low in the amount of ice available. It was noticed in 2012 that the ice cap of the Arctic Ocean reduced to its lowest extent ever recorded.

According the updates, the Arctic has lost half of its size. If the trend continues, the Arctic can be free from ice completely within next 30 to 50 years.

Bruce Richardson

Ms. Johnson, this is misleading:

“the Arctic has lost half of its size. If the trend continues, the Arctic
can be free from ice completely within next 30 to 50 years”

Assuming that the present trend continues, the Arctic may be “free from ice completely” only for a few weeks at the end of the Arctic Summer. After around the middle of September, the sea ice extent starts to increase. It reaches its maximum at the end of the Arctic winter. The ice starts to decrease around the middle of March each year. The maximum has not varied nearly as much year to year as the minimum.

Something that it is important for folks to understand i.e. “the rest of the story” is that the Arctic cycles between warm and cool phases. The current warm phase may have peaked already. It is very unlikely that the current warm phase will last another 30 to 50 years. It is more likely that we will be moving into the next cool phase within the next 10 years.